Diwali Samvat 2082 Stock Pick: ICICI Bank Ltd – MNCL’s Expert Recommendation
13 Oct 2025
ICICI Bank has come out stronger in the last one and half year with strong asset quality in unsecured loans, NIMs higher than the pre-Covid rate cycle and solid liabilities profile while growing the domestic loan book higher than the system growth. ICICI Bank balance sheet profile is strong - (1) CET-1 is adequate at 16.3% (2) Provision buffer is best-in-class at ~1% of loans despite higher than system loan growth and (3) LCR is adequate at 122.7%. Opex intensity is likely to reduce going ahead. We expect NIM’s to contract by 14-17bps in Q2FY26 and normalisation of credit costs to 55-65bps over FY26 & FY27. We expect ICICI to deliver ROAs of 2.2% over FY26-27E leading to sustenance of premium valuation multiple over its peers.
| CMP (Rs) | Target (Rs) | Upside |
|---|---|---|
| ₹1,380 | ₹1,700 | 23% |
| Bloomberg Code | ICICIBC IN |
|---|---|
| Curr Shares O/S (mn)* | 7148.6 |
| Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDmn) | 9,867.3 / 111,243 |
| 52 Wk H / L (Rs)* | 1500 / 1186 |
| 5 Year H / L (Rs)* | 1500 / 388 |
| Daily Vol. 3M Avg. (‘000) | 10009 |
Source: ACE Equity, MNCL Research
Price Performance
| (%) | 1M | 6M | 1Yr |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICICI | -1.7 | 6.1 | 11.0 |
| NIFTY | 1.3 | 12.9 | 1.1 |
Source: ACE Equity, MNCL Research
Shareholding Pattern
| (%) | Jun-25 | Mar-25 | Dec-24 |
|---|---|---|---|
| FII | 46.8 | 45.8 | 45.7 |
| DII./Govt. | 44.1 | 45.1 | 45.2 |
| Public | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.1 |
Source: ACE Equity, MNCL Research
Gaining market share in Deposits:
CASA growth in Q1FY26 remained best-in-class at 9% yoy vs. 2%/4%/6% for Axis/Kotak/ HDFC. Bank has very low reliance on wholesale deposits.
Business Banking (SME) to drive advances growth:
SME book has been growing at a high rate and we expect it to grow at over 18-20% for next few years. Business banking is a high yield book with decent asset quality resulting in high ROAs. We expect Unsecured segments like Credit Cards and Personal Loans to also pick up going ahead driving overall retail book. Overall we expect loan growth of 12-13% over FY26-27, higher than the system growth of ~10-11%.
Value unlocking from subsidiaries:
ICICI Pru AMC’s IPO is around the corner which could result in unlocking some value given that bank holds 51% stake in it. We attribute Rs 55/share each to its life and general insurance subsidiaries in SOTP. Yes Bank stake sale would also boost profitability and book value in Q2FY26.
Outlook & Valuation:
ICICI continues to deliver superior and consistent performance. ICICI Bank’s management focus on profitability over balance sheet growth has held the bank in steady ship vs peers who have lagged in both balance sheet and profitability due to asset quality and margins. We value ICICI Bank banking business at 2.7x FY27 BV and its stake in Subsidiaries at 250/share to arrive at our fair value of 1700/share over next 1 year.
Exhibit 1: Key Financials (Consolidated)
| Y/E Mar (Rs mn) | FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NII | 7,43,057 | 8,11,644 | 8,58,607 | 9,76,446 |
| YoY (%) | 19.5 | 9.2 | 5.7 | 13.7 |
| PPOP | 5,81,307 | 6,72,988 | 7,15,553 | 8,32,574 |
| YoY (%) | 18.4 | 15.7 | 6.3 | 16.3 |
| PAT | 4,08,882 | 4,72,269 | 4,75,217 | 5,61,154 |
| YoY (%) | 28.1 | 15.5 | 0.62 | 18.0 |
| BVPS (Rs)* | 333 | 406 | 458 | 523 |
Exhibit 2: Key Indicators
| Y/E Mar | FY24 | FY25 | FY26E | FY27E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIMs (%) | 4.52 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.05 |
| ROE (%) | 19.0 | 18.1 | 15.4 | 16.1 |
| ROA (%) | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| P/B (x) | 3.71 | 3.05 | 2.52 | 2.21 |
Source: Company ICICI Bank Ltd, MNCL Research
STOCK PICKS FOR SAMVAT 2082
| Stock Details | Industry | Buying Range (₹) | CMP* (₹) | Target Price (₹) | Upside Potential % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bharat Electronics Ltd | Industry | 407-420 | 414 | 463 | 12% |
| Brigade Enterprises Ltd | Real-estate | 920-970 | 943 | 1341 | 42% |
| Clean Science & Technology Ltd | Specialty Chemical | 1045-1100 | 1072 | 1220 | 14% |
| Elecon Engineering Company Ltd | Capital Goods | 540-580 | 557 | 733 | 32% |
| ICICI Bank Ltd | BFSI | 1360-1400 | 1380 | 1700 | 23% |
| National Aluminium Company Ltd | Metals | 215-235 | 224 | 280 | 25% |
| Sai Life Sciences Ltd | Healthcare | 840-885 | 861 | 1055 | 22% |
| TBO Tek Ltd | Hospitality | 1520-1600 | 1562 | 1853 | 19% |
| TCPL Packaging Ltd | Packaging | 3300-3500 | 3402 | 4303 | 26% |
| Vesuvius India Ltd | Metals | 490-520 | 505 | 585 | 16% |
| Windlas Biotech Ltd | Healthcare | 890-940 | 915 | 1225 | 34% |
*Closing Price as on 10-10-2025
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Disclaimer: - Investments in securities market are subject to market risk, read all the related document carefully before investing. https://www.mnclgroup.com/research-disclaimer
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