Goldiam International - From export strength to domestic scale - Company Update

We reiterate BUY on Goldiam International / revise target price to Rs. 515 (vs. Rs. 470 earlier) as we roll forward our valuation to Q3FY28E and upgrade estimates by ~5%, driven by stronger-than-expected execution. The company delivered its best-ever quarterly performance in Q3FY26 highlighting the strength of its B2B export franchise, advantage following adoption of the US-based casting strategy and scaling up of the B2C franchise. Goldiam’s B2C lab-grown diamond brand "ORIGEM" is scaling rapidly with 13 operational stores; likely to scale to 24–26 stores by end-FY26e and further to ~40 stores by H1FY27. Backed by a robust balance sheet (cash & investments of ~Rs.5bn) and a healthy B2B order book (~Rs.1.8bn), Goldiam remains well positioned to compound earnings through a diversified growth engine spanning exports and domestic retail over the medium term.

Robust revenue growth:

The company reported strong revenue growth of 14.3% YoY to Rs.3,197mn, marking its best-ever quarterly performance. Notably, this growth was delivered on a high base, with Q3FY25 being the previous peak quarter. The performance was largely driven by the B2B segment, with LGD jewellery contributing 91% of revenues, up from 80% YoY, reflecting higher wallet share with key US retailers. The Origem (B2C) business contributed Rs.56mn during the quarter, indicating steady progress in the domestic retail foray.

Margin performance:

Gross margins expanded to 31.6% (vs 31.5% YoY), underscoring the success of the company’s strategy to mitigate tariff impact by casting raw gold in the US. Despite continued investments in scaling the Origem brand, OPM was flat YoY at 22.1%. EBITDA for the quarter stood at Rs.707mn, up 13% YoY. PAT grew sharply by 37% YoY to Rs.684mn, aided by strong operating performance.

B2C business scaling up and well on track:

ORIGEM continues to gain traction, with the company now operating 13 stores and having signed LOIs for a rapid scale-up, including 12–14 new stores by Mar’26, taking the network to 24–26 stores by FY26-end, followed by ~15 additional stores in H1 FY27. Management highlighted encouraging early store economics, with mature stores (3+ years) targeted at ~Rs.0.4mn monthly sales, ~2x inventory turns, and ~38–42% gross margins, which should drive store-level profitability as the network scales. ORIGEM is positioned as a right-priced lab-grown diamond jewellery brand, supported by Goldiam’s integrated sourcing and manufacturing advantages, offering IGI-certified jewellery with lifetime buyback and exchange, differentiating it from peers. While the brand reported an operating loss of ~Rs.25mn in Q3FY26, management expects losses to moderate as scale benefits accrue, with a focus on achieving aggregate store-level breakeven even as expansion accelerates.

Valuation, view and risk:

Goldiam combines structural strength in exports with emerging domestic optionality. The US casting model continues to provide a durable zero-duty advantage, supporting margins and earnings visibility, while wallet-share gains and new geographies drive B2B growth. At the same time, ORIGEM is scaling into a credible second growth engine, supported by right pricing, trust-led differentiation and improving store economics. Backed by a strong balance sheet and proven execution, Goldiam remains well positioned to compound earnings over the medium term. We revise our earnings estimates upwards by 5% for FY27E/FY28E and value the stock at 30x Q3FY28E earnings of Rs. 17.2 post which we arrive at our target price of Rs. 515. Key Risk: Slowdown in store expansion, uncertainty in key export markets.

Company website: https://www.goldiam.com/

*CMP is as per report published date

Click to download the full Goldiam International Ltd Company Update

Analyst:

• Rahul Dani - Research Analyst, Institutional Equities (NISM-201500034725)
• Vaidik Bafna- Research Associate, Institutional Equities (NISM-202100035711)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Here are quick answers to common investor questions on the Goldiam International investment opportunity, including levels, outlook and risk factors.

1. What is the buying range for Goldiam International?

Traders can consider accumulating the stock near the ₹390–420 zone based on current momentum and support levels.

2. What stop loss should traders maintain?

A stop loss below ₹365 on a closing basis is recommended to manage downside risk.

3. What factors support the bullish outlook?

Strong B2B export performance, margin stability, a healthy order book and rapid scaling of the ORIGEM retail business support positive sentiment.

4. What are the key risks to this trade?

Slowdown in export demand, delays in store expansion or broader market weakness could impact the expected upside.

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