CRISIL Q4FY26 Power Idea: Rating Cycle Upswing & Valuation Comfort

05 Jan 2026
CRISIL Q4FY26 Power Idea: Rating Cycle Upswing & Valuation Comfort

CRISIL continues to strengthen its leadership in credit ratings and research analytics, backed by strong pricing power, diversified revenues, and superior return ratios. Here’s a crisp view on what’s driving the next leg of growth.

Power Idea Q4FY26Details
CompanyCRISIL Ltd
Target Price₹5,100
Upside Potential18%

What we like in the company?

  • CRISIL Ltd is a play on the rating opportunity (domestic & GAC) and research & analytics markets. The co. enjoys market leadership position in India’s overall rating market; competes with leading global firms for its Research, Analytics & Solution (RAS) division.
  • 9MCY25 rating revenue up 20% YoY; by-far the highest in the recent past - an outcome of ‘flight to safety’, superior credit rating standards, and migration study.
  • Diversified revenue mix, strong parentage, and superior return ratios (RoE / ROCE in excess of 30%) is an added positive and attributed to premium valuation multiples to its peers

Near-term triggers

  • 9MCY25 Research, analytics & solution division grew 5-6% YoY and is well attributed to moderation in discretionary spendings in the US markets. Any reversal therein will aid in superior growth in the RAS division.
  • CRISIL however continues to add clients in its Integral IQ and Coalition – Greenwich division. H2 tends to be strong for Greenwich division. 
    Increased traction in the GAC business.

Earnings Outlook

  • Consensus estimates is factoring revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 12-14% over CY24–CY27E.
  • CY27E/CY28E EPS is at Rs128 / Rs148 respectively.

Drivers to revenue growth

Drivers to revenue growth for Crisil ltd
Source: Company, MNCL Research

Valuation and view

  • Stock trades at 34x CY26e / 29x CY27e EPS and is at huge discount to its 5-year average PE at 42.5x. Our TP at Rs5,100 is derived at 40x CY26e EPS of  Rs128
  • Key risks: slower than expected pick up in RAS division; margin pressure

1-yr forward PE chart

1-yr forward PE chart of CRISIL ltd
Source: Company, MNCL Research estimates

Key financials (Rs mn)

ParticularsCY23CY24CY25ECY26ECY27E
Revenue/td>31,39532,59835,85640,92645,869
EBITA8,6927,18410,51111,07312,952
PAT6,5846,8417,8279,13410,661
EBITDA Margin (%)28.228.429.327.128.2
PAT Margin (%)20.820.921.822.323.2
ROAE (%)28.526.628.429.830.5
ROCE (%)34.533.132.133.333.6
P/E (x)48.146.340.433.829.2

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FAQs on Crisil Ltd Power Idea

Why is CRISIL considered a high-quality compounder?

CRISIL enjoys leadership in India’s credit rating market, diversified global analytics revenues, strong pricing power, and return ratios consistently above 30%, justifying premium valuations.

What is driving recent growth in CRISIL’s ratings business?

Rating revenues rose 20% YoY in 9MCY25 due to flight-to-safety, migration studies, and stricter credit standards across borrowers.

What are the key growth triggers ahead?

Recovery in US discretionary spends, strong H2 performance in Greenwich, and increasing traction in Global Analytical Capability (GAC) business.

What are the key risks to the CRISIL outlook?

Slower-than-expected recovery in the RAS division or margin pressure due to cost inflation could impact earnings momentum.

What is MNCL Research’s target price for CRISIL?

We value CRISIL at ₹5,100, based on 40x CY26E EPS, reflecting long-term earnings visibility and strong return metrics.

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Disclaimer: - Investments in securities market are subject to market risk, read all the related document carefully before investing. https://www.mnclgroup.com/research-disclaimer

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