Triveni Turbine: Worst likely behind, recovery pending - Company update

We upgrade our rating on Triveni Turbine to BUY, supported by improving execution visibility and a gradual recovery in order inflows. While new applications such as CO₂-based energy storage, MVR, and turbine servicing are likely to be incrementally accretive to growth over time, a potential scaling up of orders from NTPC could emerge as a more meaningful near to medium-term growth driver. With export enquiries remaining healthy, better end user demand visibility in the domestic market, and profitability resilient post one-offs, we expect growth to accelerate from FY27 onwards, aided by favorable trade agreements that should enhance Triveni’s competitiveness in the turbines and services business. We estimate a revenue, EBITDA, and PAT CAGR of ~13% over FY25–28E.

Strong growth beat; PAT tempered by one-off:

Triveni delivered strong Q3FY26 results, ~20% above our estimates, with revenue at Rs 6.24 bn (+24% YoY, +23% QoQ), supported by execution of pent-up export orders and a Rs 700 mn revenue booking from the NTPC order. EBITDA increased to Rs 1.34 bn (+23% YoY, +17% QoQ), with margins stable at 21.5%. PAT stood at Rs 921 mn (flat YoY, +1% QoQ), impacted by a one-time labor code–related expense; excluding this, profitability remained healthy and aligned with revenue growth. For 9MFY26, revenue was Rs 15.02 bn (+2% YoY), EBITDA Rs 3.22 bn (+2% YoY) with margins steady at 21.5%, and PAT Rs 2.48 bn. While execution was robust, order inflows declined both sequentially and YoY.

Order intake to rebound in Q4; FY27 growth to improve:

Triveni’s operational performance should improve moving forward driven by an anticipated recovery in order booking and sustained capex momentum across its key end user industries. Export enquiries from geothermal, biomass, process industries, and data centers remain high, though conversion timelines are elongated. The company has also developed capabilities in servicing larger utility turbines while new products such as MVR and CO₂ heat pumps, are gaining traction but will take time to scale meaningfully. While the overall FY26 performance looks soft, we believe Q3 was likely the trough of its underperformance and expect growth to pick up in FY27/28.

Emerging opportunities with optionality from the US market:

With execution underway on the NTPC project potentially unlocking similar CO₂-based energy-storage opportunities, and with expanding steam-turbine capabilities and broader rotating-equipment servicing, Triveni Turbine Limited is well positioned to benefit from emerging applications across renewables, waste-to-energy, geothermal, and decentralized power. Alongside an improving trade environment and US market optionality—where enquiries remain strong despite long conversion cycles—we remain constructive on the company’s medium-term growth. Our view is further supported by the India-EU FTA and the India-US trade deal, which enhance the competitiveness of Indian manufacturers such as Triveni Turbine.

Valuation and view:

We upgrade our rating to BUY (previously ACCUMULATE), assigning an unchanged 40.0x P/E and 30.0x EV/EBITDA to Dec 2027E EPS and EBITDA arriving at a target price of Rs 630, with no changes made to our estimates. Key downside risks: Geopolitical turmoil and return of trade war.

Company website: https://www.triveniturbines.com/

*CMP is as per report published date

Click to download the full Triveni Turbine Ltd Q3FY26 Company Update

Analyst:

• Mohit Surana - Senior Research Analyst, Institutional Equities (NISM-202300189881)
• Mohd Haris - Research Associate, Institutional Equities (NISM-202400161268)

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FAQs on Triveni Turbine Ltd Q3FY26 Company Update

These FAQs highlight key insights from MNCL’s institutional equity research on Triveni Turbine, covering growth outlook, key drivers and risks for investors.

1. What is MNCL’s rating on Triveni Turbine?

MNCL has upgraded the stock to BUY with a target price of ₹630, indicating ~24% upside from current levels.

2. What drove the recent strong performance?

Q3FY26 revenue grew 24% YoY supported by execution of pending export orders and NTPC-related revenue, while EBITDA margins remained stable at 21.5%.

3. What is the future growth outlook?

Order inflows are expected to improve from Q4, with growth likely to accelerate from FY27 driven by domestic capex recovery and strong export enquiries.

4. What are the key growth opportunities?

Opportunities include NTPC projects, turbine servicing, geothermal and biomass applications, data center demand, and emerging technologies such as CO₂-based energy storage and MVR systems.

5. What are the key risks to monitor?

Risks include geopolitical uncertainties, delays in order conversion, and potential disruptions from global trade tensions.

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