Triveni Turbine Limited (TTL) - Driving the decentralized energy wave | Initiating Coverage Report

We initiate coverage on Triveni Turbine Ltd. (TTL) with an Accumulate rating and a target price of Rs 605. The company offers a compelling investment case anchored by its dominant sub-30 MW steam-turbine franchise, deep aftermarket moat, and expanding global footprint. A broad end-market mix and resilient export pipeline temper cyclicality, while 1HFY26 softness is likely to normalize. Concurrently, TTL’s investments in indigenous CO2 heat pumps, MVR systems, and API drive turbines open complementary, high-growth adjacencies, strategically positioning the company to capture accelerating decarbonization-led industrial demand. We expect revenue/EBITDA/PAT to grow at 13% CAGR over FY25–28E.

Established Player with a Strong Moat in Aftermarket Services:

TTL has established a dominant position in industrial steam turbines with ~55% domestic market share (< 30 MW range) and ranks among the top two players globally, based on units sold. The company has seen strong growth in recent times due to the improving traction in the global thermal renewables sector which requires small capacity turbines. Its moat lies in its ability to minimize turbine operation downtime for customers by providing strong after-market support, which contributed 32% to the topline in FY25 and has grown at a 7-year CAGR of 19% versus product sales growth of 14%. Supported by two manufacturing plants, TTL benefits from a large installed base and proven reliability, enabling it to steadily capture a rising share of industrial clean-energy investments worldwide.

Diversified End-Markets Reduces Cyclicality:

Exports have been a major growth pillar for TTL, contributing 48% of revenue and 57% order book in FY25, supported by steady demand from the Middle East, Europe, Southeast Asia and Africa. The order book pipeline (1.1x book-to-bill) remains resilient, backed by broad-based demand across chemicals, cement, textiles, sugar-ethanol, refining and distributed power. 1HFY26 revenue declined 9% YoY as geopolitical disruptions deferred mechanical run tests by clients, but the situation is likely to normalize. TTL’s expanding global presence and diversified product–service mix provide strong visibility while reducing reliance on domestic cycles.

New Product Launches Unlock New Complementary Growth Vectors:

TTL is actively investing in next-generation energy-transition technologies. In August 2025, it launched India’s first indigenous CO₂ heat pump which further expands its reach into high-efficiency heating solutions intended for various industrial applications. Meanwhile, its entry into mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) and growing traction in API (American Petroleum Institute) drive turbines open new engineering and export-led revenue streams. Together, these initiatives create meaningful avenues for growth and position TTL to participate across multiple emerging decarbonization markets.

Valuation and view:

We believe TTL’s strong balance sheet, cash-generative business model, technology investments, and global competitiveness combined with industry-leading returns (ROE/ROCE of 30% +) and a growing export franchise justify premium valuations. We value the stock at 40x and 30x, Sep-27E EPS and EBITDA, respectively, implying an average TP of Rs 605. Key risks: Slowdown in global industrial spending, geopolitical tensions, and slow new product adoption.

Company website: https://www.triveniturbines.com/

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Analyst: 

• Mohit Surana - Senior Research Analyst, Institutional Equities (NISM-202300189881)
• Mohd Haris - Research Associate, Institutional Equities (NISM-202400161268)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1. What is the investment view on Triveni Turbine?

Triveni Turbine is rated Accumulate with a target price of Rs 605, implying a 14% upside from the current market price of Rs 531, supported by strong exports, aftermarket strength, and clean-energy exposure.

Q2. What makes Triveni Turbine a strong long-term play?

The company dominates the sub-30 MW steam turbine segment with ~55% domestic market share and a strong global presence. Its high-margin aftermarket business and diversified end markets reduce earnings cyclicality.

Q3. How important are exports for Triveni Turbine’s growth?

Exports contributed 48% of revenue and 57% of the order book in FY25, driven by demand from the Middle East, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Africa, providing strong long-term visibility.

Q4. What new growth opportunities is Triveni Turbine investing in?

Triveni Turbine is expanding into CO₂ heat pumps, mechanical vapor recompression (MVR) systems, and API drive turbines, positioning itself to benefit from global decarbonization-led industrial demand.

Q5. What are the key risks to the Triveni Turbine outlook?

Key risks include slowdown in global industrial capex, geopolitical disruptions affecting execution timelines, and slower-than-expected adoption of newly launched products.

Q6. What growth is expected for Triveni Turbine over the medium term?

The company is expected to deliver ~13% CAGR in revenue, EBITDA, and PAT over FY25–28E, supported by a resilient order book and expanding clean-energy applications.

Further Reading for Long-Term Investors:

• Read our detailed Equity Research reports in coverage universe
• Capital Goods Sector Analysis - Remain cautiously optimistic in Q2FY26
• Explore Our Other Capital Goods Initiating Coverage Reports