TD Power Systems: Global demand fuelling growth visibility - Company Update
30 Jan 2026
Companies Updates
We upgrade TD Power to BUY / revise our target price upwards to Rs 875 (vs. Rs 840 earlier). Q3-FY26 results were a tad lower than our expectations and reflect timing issues rather than demand or competitive weakness. Going ahead, the Tumkur facility ramp-up should materially improve execution and operating leverage. Record order book and direct exposure to a multi-year global power generation cycle driven by data centers, industrial capex and grid stability confirms strong earnings visibility over the medium term. The company’s leadership in sub-100 MW generators and deep OEM partnerships reinforce our positive stance. Our estimates remain unchanged with a revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 26-28% over FY25-28E.
TD Power System Ltd. Stock Price Chart
One-Off Q3 miss, momentum Intact:
TDPS reported Q3FY26 revenue/EBITDA/PAT of Rs 4,427 mn/Rs 804 mn/Rs 563 mn, up 25%/31%/25% YoY but down 2%/3%/6% QoQ. For 9M-FY26, revenue, EBITDA and PAT grew 36.2%, 40.3% and 37.0% YoY, respectively. While underlying momentum remains strong, Q3 revenue missed our estimate by ~9% due to a one-off relocation of critical machinery from the existing plant to the new Tumkur facility; we expect the shortfall to spill over into Q4FY26. Gross margin expanded 180 bps YoY and 220 bps QoQ to 35.1%, while EBITDA margin stood at 18.2% (+70 bps YoY, -10 bps QoQ), reflecting higher opex linked to the new facility, with utilization set to ramp up meaningfully in Q4FY26.
Order Inflows validate structural growth cycle:
TDPS posted a strong Q3FY26 order intake of Rs 6.6bn (+61% YoY, +25% QoQ), lifting the order book to Rs18.4 bn (+41% YoY, +16% QoQ), driven by exports. Management expects order inflows to remain strong, validated by positive commentary from global power OEMs. With a clear moat in sub-100 MW generators and long-standing OEM partnerships, TDPS is well placed to benefit from this cycle, supporting continued order momentum, improved execution and a strong finish to FY26.
Global Power OEMs flag sustained and multi-year demand:
Commentaries from major OEMs such as GE Vernova, Caterpillar, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, and Siemens Energy for the last two-quarters points to a multi-year, structural upcycle in power demand, driven by increasing reliance on on-site captive generation for data centers, industrial facilities and grid stabilization. These OEMs highlighted strong order books, capacity additions and firm pricing across gas engines and gas turbines used for distributed/prime power, underscoring the strong export-led demand across the power generation ecosystem which TDPS currently benefits from.
Valuation and View:
We roll forward our valuation to Dec-2027E and upgrade our rating to BUY, while keeping our estimates unchanged. Valuing the stock at an unchanged 40.0x Dec-2027E EPS and 28.0x Dec-2027E EBITDA, we arrive at a TP of Rs875 (vs Rs840 earlier). Key Risks: Worsening of cash conversion, and slowdown in global industrial capex in the energy sector.
Company website: https://www.tdps.co.in/
| Rating | BUY |
|---|---|
| CMP | INR 723 |
| Target Price | INR 875 |
| Upside | 21% |
Click to download the full TD Power Systems 3QFY26 Company Update
Explore more high-growth engineering and capital goods research.
Analyst:
- Mohit Surana - Senior Research Analyst, Institutional Equities (NISM-202300189881)
- Mohd Haris - Research Associate, Institutional Equities (NISM-202400161268)
FAQs on TD Power System Ltd. Q3FY26 Company Update
Overview: TD Power Systems has been gaining investor attention due to strong global demand for power generation equipment and a growing export order book. Below are key questions investors often evaluate when assessing the company’s outlook.
1. What drove TD Power Systems’ recent growth?
Growth has been driven primarily by strong export demand for generators used in power generation, industrial facilities and distributed energy systems.
2. Why did the company miss expectations in Q3FY26?
The Q3FY26 performance was slightly below estimates due to the relocation of machinery to the new Tumkur manufacturing facility, which temporarily impacted production timelines.
3. How strong is TD Power Systems’ order book?
The company reported an order book of approximately ₹18.4 billion, supported largely by export demand and growing global requirements for power generation equipment.
4. What industry trends support TD Power Systems’ growth?
Rising electricity demand from data centers, industrial expansion and grid stability requirements are driving a multi-year global demand cycle for power generation equipment.
5. What risks should investors monitor?
Key risks include potential slowdown in global industrial capital expenditure, changes in export demand dynamics and working capital management challenges.
Disclaimer: You are advised to read our disclaimer here: https://www.mnclgroup.com/disclaimers
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The Anup Engineering: Through the Trough, Recovery in the offing - Company Update
We upgrade our rating on The Anup Engineering to BUY (previously HOLD) and revise our target price to Rs 2,515. The company is not yet out of the woods, with the market awaiting clear signs of a recovery in order inflows. That said, we believe the wo...
Saksoft Ltd: Temporary headwinds, normalization in sight - Company Update
We maintain our "BUY" rating with a revised target price of Rs 285 (vs 325). Saksoft delivered weak results – a) topline growth saw a de-growth of 3% despite the favourable currency mix, b) Top 2 clients have cut spends in Q3, the pain co...
Mayur Uniquoters: Riding export momentum - Company Update
We maintain our BUY rating on Mayur Uniquoters with a revised target price of Rs. 825 (earlier Rs. 770), as we roll forward our valuation to Q3 FY28E and upgrade our FY27E/FY28E earnings estimates by ~4%. The company delivered a robust operating perf...
Scoda Tubes Ltd.: Slight miss; structural thesis intact - Company Update
We retain BUY rating on Scoda Tubes but upward revise target price of Rs 250 (previously Rs 240). Increase in target price is mainly due to valuation rollover. Q3FY26 was a strong performance on offtake, marginally offset by pricing weakness and dela...
TD Power Systems: Global demand fuelling growth visibility - Company Update
We upgrade TD Power to BUY / revise our target price upwards to Rs 875 (vs. Rs 840 earlier). Q3-FY26 results were a tad lower than our expectations and reflect timing issues rather than demand or competitive weakness. Going ahead, the Tumkur facility...
SJS Enterprises Ltd - Premiumisation and Export-led Outperformance - Company Update
We revise our target price on SJS Enterprises upwards to Rs2,190 to account for an increase in revenue/ margin estimates, and valuation roll-forward to Dec’27E. SJS delivered another quarter of strong industry outperformance, with record profitabil...
Sundram Fasteners Ltd.: Exports spoil the show - Company Update
We lower target price to Rs 1035 (previously Rs 1085) and maintain Accumulate rating for Sundram Fasteners Ltd. (SFL). We downward revise our multiple to account for extended weakness on exports including delay in EV order to North America, in turn l...
ASK Automotive Ltd. - Firing on all cylinders - Company Update
We upgrade ASK Automotive to BUY rating on attractive valuation and increase our TP to Rs590 (Rs525 previously). The increase in TP is largely driven by valuation rollover. ASK delivered a strong Q3, materially ahead of our expectations, led by broad...
Kirloskar Ferrous Ind. - Casting and tubes outperform, spreads spoil the show | Company Update
We lower our target price to Rs 620 (previously Rs690) and retain BUY rating for Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd. (KFIL). The decrease in TP is mainly to account for weak commodity spreads and realization across end products . KFIL’s 2QFY26 perfor...
IFGL Refractories Ltd. - Domestic focus continues to payoff; overseas improving gradually | Company Update
We decrease target price to Rs 280 (previously Rs 300) but maintain BUY rating. The change in TP is mainly due to cut of earnings estimates. IFGL delivered another quarter of strong standalone growth as its domestic-focused strategy continues to gain...
Borosil Ltd. - Glassware ignites growth; levers to power margins | Company Update
We reiterate our BUY on Borosil Ltd and revise our target price upwards to Rs. 460 (vs. Rs. 420 earlier), driven by strong demand momentum and emerging structural growth and margin levers. The company continues to deliver robust growth in its glasswa...
Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd. - Export and welded drives confidence | Company Update
We increase Target Price to Rs 2040 (previously Rs1,950) and retain BUY for Venus Pipes & Tubes (VENUS) due to attractive valuations. Increase in TP is primarily due to valuation roll forward. Revenue in 2QFY26 was strong, supported by a sharp re...
ESAB India - Encouraging quarter; growth in focus | Company Update
We retain Buy on ESAB India with TP revised upwards to Rs 6,850 (vs Rs 6,554 earlier) on valuation rollover. The company delivered a strong quarter, with overall growth hinting at signs of recovery supported by margin gains. ESAB continues to o...
The Anup Engineering - All eyes on cash conversion | Company Update
We maintain our HOLD rating on Anup Engineering but increase TP to Rs 2,475 (vs Rs 2,375 earlier) considering steady operational performance and an unchanged growth outlook coupled with valuation rollover. The impact from higher taxes was anticipated...
Rashi Peripherals Ltd – Turns cashflow positive
We retain "BUY" rating with a Target Price of Rs. 505 (vs Rs 525 earlier). Rashi Peripherals ltd reported decent topline growth, on the back of strong sales from the PES segment (PCs, Desktops). Our dealer checks suggest demand is improving for AI-en...
Wonderla Holidays - Chennai on Track; Expansion Visibility Low | MNCL Research Update
We reiterate our HOLD rating on Wonderla Holidays Ltd while revising our target multiple downwards to 18x (from ~20x) and rolling forward our valuation to Q2FY28E. In a seasonally weak quarter, the company delivered a better-than-expected topline, pr...
R Systems International - Strong growth tempered by higher SG&A & RSU costs | MNCL Research Update
We maintain our "BUY" and retain our target price to Rs 620. R Systems delivered higher than expected topline growth (7.9% vs our estimate of 3.5% in INR terms). EBITDA was in line with our estimates / margins dipped 70bps QoQ on the back of higher R...
SJS Enterprises Ltd - Designed to outperform | MNCL Research Update
We revise our target price on SJS Enterprises upwards to Rs1,930 to account for an increase in revenue/ margin estimates, valuation roll-forward to Sept’27E and target multiple expansion. SJS delivered another quarter of strong industry outperforma...
Channel checks - Opalware and Glassware - Borosil Sets the Benchmark in Opalware Retail
We conducted channel checks across key markets in Western and Northern India to gauge demand trends (qualitative aspects) in the Opalware and Glassware categories. We also analysed balance sheet / profitability trends (quantitative parts) across key ...
Goldiam International - LGD Momentum builds; ORIGEM scaling | Company Update
We reiterate our BUY rating on Goldiam International with a target price of Rs. Rs.470. Despite near-term uncertainty around U.S. tariff implications, the company has delivered an exemplary performance driven by robust topline growth and increasing w...
ASK Automotive Ltd – Meets Expectations; ALPS & Aftermarket to Drive Growth | MNCL Research Company Update
We retain ACCUMULATE on ASK Automotive while lowering our target price to Rs 525. The lowering of TP follows downward revision in our revenue and margin estimates, partially offset by valuation rollover. ASK delivered a strong Q2, broadly in line wit...
Sundram Fasteners Ltd. - Steady Domestic Momentum Offsets Export Weakness; upgrade to Accumulate - Company Update
We increase target price to Rs 1085 (previously Rs1030) and upgrade our rating to Accumulate for Sundram Fasteners Ltd. (SFL) due to steep correction in share price. Increase in TP is mainly due to valuation roll forward. SFL’s performance in 2QFY2...
JNK India Ltd – End of Overhang, Execution to Drive Growth | Q2FY26
Our interaction with JNK India led to the following conclusions: JNK India’s legacy low-margin orders (NRL, IOCL) delayed by site and client issues are expected to conclude largely by Q2FY26, with minor spillover into Q3FY26. From Q3FY26, high-marg...
Ratnamani Metals and Tubes Ltd. - Subsidiaries outperform | Company Update
We increase target price to Rs 2710 (previously 2690) and upgrade to Accumulate rating. Increase in target price is due to valuation roll forward. In 2QFY26, the core pipes business saw modest growth as strong offtake was offset by weak realizations....
