Kirloskar Ferrous Ind. - Casting and tubes outperform, spreads spoil the show | Company Update
We lower our target price to Rs 620 (previously Rs690) and retain BUY rating for Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd. (KFIL). The decrease in TP is mainly to account for weak commodity spreads and realization across end products . KFIL’s 2QFY26 performance was best to MNCL revenue and estimates, supported by improved offtake for castings (especially Oliver engg.) and tubes. Weak pricing for pig iron and alloy steel limited the growth on revenue and full-fledged expansion of spreads. The over-supply scenario in the domestic steel market is expected to continue, weighing on margin expansion for rest of FY26, which is the reason for cut in valuation multiple. On a longer term, we expect margins to rebound once prices turn benign. Remain positive.
Beat on revenue due to high offtake on tubes and castings:
KFIL reported 5% yoy growth in consol. revenue at Rs17.6bn, beat to MNCL estimate of Rs16.9bn. Despatches of pig iron (132kt; +2% yoy), castings (36.7kt; -1% yoy) and tubes (49.6kt; +24% yoy) were main drivers of revenue growth. However, realisation corrected (yoy basis) for all products, due to weakness in domestic steel prices and adverse product mix in tubes, in turn impacting the revenue growth. Additionally, Rs460mn was the revenue from Oliver engg. at an offtake of ~5000 tonnes resulting into a strong ramp up in casting segment.
Weak realization and adverse product mix dent margins:
Lower realization for alloy steel and pig iron compressed the spreads to weak levels despite some benefit on raw material due to captive iron ore and reduction in coking coal cost. Adverse product mix in tubes further led to weak gross margins. With some savings from captive power and low employee cost, KFIL reported margins at 12.2% (+60bps yoy; -60bps qoq) and consol. EBITDA of Rs2.1bn in Q2FY26.
Looking forward to volume growth and cost savings in FY26:
2QFY26 was a quarter affected by weak commodity spreads and weak pricing for tubes. KFIL reported strong ~15% margins on castings but was barely breakeven on pig iron. Going ahead, improvement in steel prices will be a major trigger for expansion in margins. Further, tractor demand has improved meaningfully starting June. This along with offtake from newly started foundry at Oliver engg. and Solapur, is expected to considerably ramp up casting offtake sequentially. Going ahead, we expect significant growth in EBITDA due to factors like i) full year impact of captive iron ore leading to Rs400mn in savings ii) Addition of 35MW green captive power in FY26 iii) Ramp up of casting offtake and iv) margin improvement in tubes on winning the order from ONGC. These factors drive our outperform thesis in KFIL but an oversupply in pig iron and scrap market has led to elongated weakness in spreads leading to cut in earnings and multiple.
Valuation and Risks:
We ascribe 9x multiple (previously 10x) on Sept’27E consol. EBITDA to arrive at TP of Rs620/share (previously Rs690/sh) and retain BUY rating. The decrease in TP is due to cut in realizations across products. At CMP – Rs 477/share, the stock trades at 8.1x/ 6.4x FY27/ FY28E consol. EV/EBITDA. Key risks: weak commodity spreads and delay in cost saving projects.
Company website: https://www.kirloskarferrous.com/
| Rating | BUY |
|---|---|
| CMP | INR 477 |
| Target Price | INR 620 |
| Upside | 30% |
Click to download the full Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd Company Update
Analyst:
- Sahil Sanghvi - Research Analyst, Institutional Equities (NISM-201900004744)
- Uvais Khatri - Research Associate, Institutional Equities (NISM-202300049054)
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
1. What is the current rating and target price for Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd?
Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd is rated BUY with a revised target price of Rs 620, implying an upside of 30% from the current market price of Rs 477.
2. Why was the target price reduced?
The target price was reduced from Rs 690 to Rs 620 mainly due to weak commodity spreads and lower realizations across pig iron, alloy steel, and tubes.
3. How did KFIL perform in Q2FY26?
KFIL reported consolidated revenue of Rs 17.6 bn, up 5% YoY, beating estimates due to strong offtake in tubes and castings.
4. Which segments supported revenue growth?
Revenue growth was supported by higher dispatches of tubes (+24% YoY) and castings, including a strong ramp-up at Oliver Engineering, which contributed Rs 460 mn in revenue.
5. Why did realizations remain weak?
Realizations declined due to weak domestic steel prices and an adverse product mix, particularly in the tubes segment.
6. How did margins perform during the quarter?
Consolidated EBITDA margins stood at 12.2%, supported by captive iron ore benefits, lower coking coal costs, captive power savings, and controlled employee costs.
7. What impacted margin expansion despite volume growth?
Margin expansion was limited due to weak pricing for pig iron and alloy steel, adverse product mix in tubes, and continued oversupply in the domestic steel market.
8. What is the outlook for FY26?
FY26 is expected to benefit from volume growth in castings, improved tractor demand, and cost savings, although margins may remain under pressure due to weak spreads.
9. What are the key drivers for future EBITDA growth?
Key drivers include full-year savings from captive iron ore (~Rs 400 mn), addition of 35MW green captive power, ramp-up at Oliver Engineering and Solapur foundry, and margin improvement in tubes from ONGC orders.
10. How is KFIL valued in this update?
KFIL is valued at 9x September 2027E consolidated EBITDA, lower than earlier, to arrive at a target price of Rs 620.
11. What are the key risks highlighted?
Key risks include prolonged weakness in commodity spreads and delays in execution of cost-saving projects.
Disclaimer: - You are advised to read our disclaimer here: https://www.mnclgroup.com/disclaimers
Latest Companies Updates
Archives
Related Blog
FIEM Industries - Riding the tailwinds of 2W boom | Q1FY27 Company Update
Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products Ltd. - Strong Quarter; Sticking to Continued Growth Trajectory | Q1FY27 Company Update
Landmark Cars - Growth intact; After-sales ramp-up to drive the next leg | Q1FY27 Company Update
TD Power Systems Ltd - Powering ahead on AI and export momentum | Q1FY27 Company update
Ecos Mobility Ltd - Strong business growth; but margin pressure persists | Q1FY27 Company Update
ESAB India Ltd - Healthy growth, sharper margins | Q1FY27 Company Update
IFGL Refractories - Domestic muted; overseas subsidiaries shine | Q1FY27 Company Upda
Triveni Turbine Ltd - Margins stumble; exports accelerate; H2 recovery remains | Q1FY27 Company update
Carysil Ltd - Scaling up growth; Earnings outlook strengthens | Q1FY27 Company Update
Venus Pipes & Tubes - In-line performance | Q1FY27 Company Update
Godawari Power & Ispat - Project Delays | Q1FY27 Company Update
Goldiam International Ltd - Strong B2B Execution; ORIGEM expansion turns calibrated | Q1FY27 Company Update
Entero Healthcare Ltd - Organic growth takes centre stage; margin expansion accelerates | Q1FY27 Company Update
Cello World - Steel & Glassware ramp-up key to revival | Q1FY27 Company Update
JNK India Ltd - Diversification provides improved growth visibility | Q1FY27 Company Update
Saksoft Ltd - Broadly in-line; maintain buy | Q1FY27 Company Update
SJS Enterprises Ltd - In-line Performance | Q1FY27 Company Update
RHI Magnesita India - Excellent Performance | Q1FY27 Company Update
Viyash Scientific Ltd - Formulations drive robust growth | Q1FY27 Company Update
La Opala RG - Cautiously optimistic | Q1FY27 Company Update
Ratnamani Metals & Tubes Ltd - Weak Quarter | Q1FY27 Company Update
Mrs Bectors Food - Strong quarter; Baking Multi-Year Growth | Q1FY26 Company Update
Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd. - Navigating challenging times | Q1FY27 Company Update
The Anup Engineering Ltd. - Not Out of the Woods Yet | Q1FY27 Company Update
Mayur Uniquoters - Export Momentum Accelerates | Q1FY27 Company Update
Sundram Fasteners Ltd - Export recovery surprises positively | Q1FY27 Company Update
R Systems - Stable Quarter | Q2CY26 Company Update
Rashi Peripherals - Another record quarter | Q1FY27 Company Update
ASK Automotive Ltd. - New business addition drives re-rating | Q1FY26 Company Update
Wonderla Holidays - Chennai Strengthens Medium-Term Visibility | Q1FY27 Company Update
Happy Forgings Ltd - On a high growth trajectory; fairly priced | Q1FY27 Company Update
Inox India Ltd - Looking beyond a soft quarter; growth acceleration ahead | Q1FY27 Company update
Ethos Ltd. - Expanding reach, elevating the mix | Q1FY27 Company Update
Sri Lotus Developers and Realty - Robust Presales; Luxury redevelopment Momentum Gathers Pace | Q1FY27 Company Update
Pricol Ltd - Large business additions drive re-rating | Q1FY27 Company update
Aditya Vision Ltd - Scaling beyond core markets | Q1FY27 Company Update
Indegene Ltd - Broadly in-line; maintain buy | Q1FY27 Company Update
Redington Ltd - All-round beat | Q1FY27 Company update
Netweb Technologies India Ltd - AI systems drive growth; margins beat estimate | Q1FY27 Company update
Ivalue Infosolutions - Stable set in a seasonally weak quarter | Q1FY27 Company Update
Aurionpro solutions Ltd - Another subdued quarter | Q1FY27 Company Update
INOX India Ltd - FY26 Annual Report Analysis - Record FY26, Acceleration Ahead
Kirloskar Pneumatic - Slow start to the new fiscal | Company Update
TD Power Systems Ltd - FY26 Annual Report Analysis - Positive Readthrough | Company Update
Jubilant Agri & Consumer Products ltd. -Scaling Up for the Next Growth Cycle - Company Update
The Anup Engineering - Middle East Crisis Clouds Near-Term Outlook - Company Update
IFGL Refractories Ltd. - Domestic muted; overseas subsidiaries shine - Company Update
FIEM Industries Ltd. - Strong Execution and Margin Resilience - Company Update
La Opala RG - Near term pain, recovery building - Company Update
RHI Magnesita India Ltd. - Tough quarter; Price hikes to the rescue - Company Update
Ecos Mobility Ltd - Well-positioned to drive India's corporate mobility growth - Company Update
Mrs Bectors Food - Short-term headwinds; long term growth intact- Company Update
Cello World - Capacity ramp-up key to recovery - Company Update
Goldiam International - B2B Cash cow, ORIGEM the next growth engine - Company Update
Landmark Cars - Consolidation to drive profitable growth - Company Update
Saksoft Ltd - Weakness across top clients drags earnings - Company Update
Entero Healthcare Ltd - Consolidation Engine Gains Momentum - Company Update
Viyash Scientific Ltd. - Sustains high margins, focus on new growth avenues - Company Update
JNK India Ltd. - Growth visibility strengthens - Company Update
Godawari Power & Ispat Ltd. - Excellent performance - Company Update
Carysil Ltd - Expanding capacity, deepening global partnerships - Company Update
Ratnamani Metals and Tubes Ltd. - Recovery in sight - Company Update
Triveni Turbine Ltd. - Growth in Exports and Aftermarket keeps Outlook Healthy - Company update
TD Power Systems - Robust quarter; Large Generator Bet Strengthens Outlook | Company update
Rashi Peripherals Ltd - Stellar all-round performance | Company Update
Sri Lotus Developers and Realty Ltd - Robust presales; luxury demand driving outperformance - Company update
Kirloskar Ferrous Industries - Pricing power yet to fully reflect in spreads | Company Update
R Systems International Ltd - Margins shine; growth to rebound - Company update
SJS Enterprises Ltd - Premiumisation and Export-led Outperformance - Company Update
Sri Lotus Developers and Realty Ltd. ─ Strong Outlook, Relentless Focus on Growth | Q4FY26 Company Update
Kirloskar Ferrous Industries - Shutdown and pricing weakness spoil the show | Company Update
Goldiam International - From export strength to domestic scale - Company Update
Ratnamani Metals and Tubes Ltd.: Core pipes weak; subsidiaries anchor margins - Company Update
Carysil Ltd: Crafting the future of modern kitchens - Company Update
Wonderla Holidays: Chennai Takes The Baton As Mature Parks Plateau - Company Update
Rashi Peripherals Ltd: Stellar quarter - Company Update
Triveni Turbine: Worst likely behind, recovery pending - Company update
The Anup Engineering: Through the Trough, Recovery in the offing - Company Update
Saksoft Ltd: Temporary headwinds, normalization in sight - Company Update
Mayur Uniquoters: Riding export momentum - Company Update
TD Power Systems: Global demand fuelling growth visibility - Company Update
SJS Enterprises Ltd - Premiumisation and Export-led Outperformance - Company Update
Sundram Fasteners Ltd.: Exports spoil the show - Company Update
ASK Automotive Ltd. - Firing on all cylinders - Company Update
Kirloskar Ferrous Ind. - Casting and tubes outperform, spreads spoil the show | Company Update
IFGL Refractories Ltd. - Domestic focus continues to payoff; overseas improving gradually | Company Update
Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd. - Export and welded drives confidence | Company Update
ESAB India - Encouraging quarter; growth in focus | Company Update
The Anup Engineering - All eyes on cash conversion | Company Update
Rashi Peripherals Ltd – Turns cashflow positive
Wonderla Holidays - Chennai on Track; Expansion Visibility Low | MNCL Research Update
R Systems International - Strong growth tempered by higher SG&A & RSU costs | MNCL Research Update
SJS Enterprises Ltd - Designed to outperform | MNCL Research Update
Channel checks - Opalware and Glassware - Borosil Sets the Benchmark in Opalware Retail
Goldiam International - LGD Momentum builds; ORIGEM scaling | Company Update
ASK Automotive Ltd – Meets Expectations; ALPS & Aftermarket to Drive Growth | MNCL Research Company Update
Sundram Fasteners Ltd. - Steady Domestic Momentum Offsets Export Weakness; upgrade to Accumulate - Company Update
JNK India Ltd – End of Overhang, Execution to Drive Growth | Q2FY26



