TD Power Systems - Robust quarter; Large Generator Bet Strengthens Outlook | Company update
15 May 2026
Companies Updates
TD Power reported a strong Q4FY26 with revenue and EBITDA beating our estimates by 12.1% and 1.8%, respectively, driven by healthy execution and exports. Margins were impacted by a one-off penalty on delayed Turkey shipments; however, business momentum remained robust with order inflow rising 61% YoY and FY27E revenue guidance raised to Rs 24bn+, implied 30% YoY growth. We remain positive on the company’s positioning within the global AI/data centre power cycle and rising demand for gas engine/turbine-linked generators. Further, the planned entry into larger-capacity generators (~200MW) materially expands its addressable market and could accelerate earnings from FY29E onwards. While we raise our TP to Rs 1,246 (from Rs 875 earlier) on valuation re-rating and rollover, we downgrade the stock to HOLD given limited near-term upside. However, we believe FY29E-based valuation better captures the company’s long-term potential and recommend buy on dips.
TD Power System Ltd. Stock Price Chart
Strong quarter despite margin headwinds:
TD Power reported robust Q4FY26 revenue growth of 69.2% YoY to Rs 5.9bn, 12% ahead of estimates, aided by strong execution across export markets. EBITDA grew 49.5% YoY to Rs 979mn, though EBITDA margin declined 219bps YoY to 16.6%, impacted by one-off penalties on delayed Turkey shipments. PAT increased 36.2% YoY to Rs 722mn. For FY26, revenue/EBITDA/PAT grew 45.2%/42.9%/36.8%, respectively, reflecting sustained demand momentum and strong operating leverage.
Order momentum and AI-led demand remain robust:
Q4FY26 order inflow rose 61% YoY to Rs 6.7bn, while FY26 inflow increased 51% YoY to Rs 22.4bn with exports/deemed exports contributing ~80% of total inflows. Order book stood at Rs 19.7bn, with generators accounting for Rs 16.8bn. The management highlighted exceptionally strong demand from gas engines and turbine OEMs driven by AI/data center-related power demand, with customers aggressively expanding capacities through 2030. Further, TD Power’s planned expansion into large-capacity generators for AI/data centers, combined-cycle plants and potential SMR applications significantly enhances long-term growth optionality.
Structural growth drivers strengthen long-term outlook:
We believe TD Power is evolving into a differentiated global generator player benefiting from rising AI/data center power demand, industrial capex and energy transition trends. The company’s technological capabilities, export relationships and entry barriers support premium positioning. While near-term margins may remain exposed to any sharp commodity volatility, the management’s FY27E revenue guidance of Rs 24bn+ remains encouraging. Planned investments in larger capacity generator manufacturing should also materially expand TAM.
Valuation and Rating:
We forecast revenue/EBITDA/PAT CAGR of 27%/28%/27% over FY26-28E and 33%/34%/33% over FY26-29E, the latter reflecting incremental contribution from larger-capacity generator expansion. We value the company at 50.0x Mar’28E EPS and 36.0x Mar’28E EBITDA to arrive at a revised TP of Rs 1,246. Downgrade to HOLD due to limited near-term upside. However, we believe FY29E-based valuation better captures the earnings acceleration potential from the large-generator opportunity, implying materially higher long-term value potential. Key risks: Sharp increase in copper prices and slowdown in global AI/industrial capex.
Company website: https://www.tdps.co.in/
| Rating | HOLD |
|---|---|
| CMP | INR 1302 |
| Target Price | INR 1246 |
| Upside | -4.3% |
Click to download the full TD Power Systems 4QFY26 Company Update
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Analyst:
- Mohit Surana - Senior Research Analyst, Institutional Equities (NISM-202300189881)
FAQs on TD Power System Ltd. Q4FY26 Company Update
Overview: TD Power Systems has been gaining investor attention due to strong global demand for power generation equipment and a growing export order book. Below are key questions investors often evaluate when assessing the company’s outlook.
What drove TD Power Systems’ Q4FY26 performance?
Strong export execution, rising demand from AI-driven data centers, and robust generator orders supported revenue and earnings growth during Q4FY26.
Why is AI demand important for TD Power Systems?
AI infrastructure and hyperscale data centers require large-scale power solutions, increasing demand for gas engine and turbine-linked generators manufactured by TD Power Systems.
What is the significance of the large generator expansion?
The company’s planned entry into large-capacity generators significantly expands its addressable market across AI data centers, industrial power projects, and energy infrastructure.
Why did margins decline in Q4FY26?
Margins were impacted by one-time penalties related to delayed Turkey shipments despite strong operational execution and higher revenue growth.
What are the key risks for TD Power Systems?
Key risks include volatility in copper prices, slowdown in global industrial capex, and weaker-than-expected AI-driven infrastructure spending.
Disclaimer: You are advised to read our disclaimer here: https://www.mnclgroup.com/disclaimers
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We upgrade our rating on Triveni Turbine to BUY, supported by improving execution visibility and a gradual recovery in order inflows. While new applications such as CO₂-based energy storage, MVR, and turbine servicing are likely to be incrementally...
The Anup Engineering: Through the Trough, Recovery in the offing - Company Update
We upgrade our rating on The Anup Engineering to BUY (previously HOLD) and revise our target price to Rs 2,515. The company is not yet out of the woods, with the market awaiting clear signs of a recovery in order inflows. That said, we believe the wo...
Saksoft Ltd: Temporary headwinds, normalization in sight - Company Update
We maintain our "BUY" rating with a revised target price of Rs 285 (vs 325). Saksoft delivered weak results – a) topline growth saw a de-growth of 3% despite the favourable currency mix, b) Top 2 clients have cut spends in Q3, the pain co...
Mayur Uniquoters: Riding export momentum - Company Update
We maintain our BUY rating on Mayur Uniquoters with a revised target price of Rs. 825 (earlier Rs. 770), as we roll forward our valuation to Q3 FY28E and upgrade our FY27E/FY28E earnings estimates by ~4%. The company delivered a robust operating perf...
Scoda Tubes Ltd.: Slight miss; structural thesis intact - Company Update
We retain BUY rating on Scoda Tubes but upward revise target price of Rs 250 (previously Rs 240). Increase in target price is mainly due to valuation rollover. Q3FY26 was a strong performance on offtake, marginally offset by pricing weakness and dela...
TD Power Systems: Global demand fuelling growth visibility - Company Update
We upgrade TD Power to BUY / revise our target price upwards to Rs 875 (vs. Rs 840 earlier). Q3-FY26 results were a tad lower than our expectations and reflect timing issues rather than demand or competitive weakness. Going ahead, the Tumkur facility...
SJS Enterprises Ltd - Premiumisation and Export-led Outperformance - Company Update
We revise our target price on SJS Enterprises upwards to Rs2,190 to account for an increase in revenue/ margin estimates, and valuation roll-forward to Dec’27E. SJS delivered another quarter of strong industry outperformance, with record profitabil...
Sundram Fasteners Ltd.: Exports spoil the show - Company Update
We lower target price to Rs 1035 (previously Rs 1085) and maintain Accumulate rating for Sundram Fasteners Ltd. (SFL). We downward revise our multiple to account for extended weakness on exports including delay in EV order to North America, in turn l...
ASK Automotive Ltd. - Firing on all cylinders - Company Update
We upgrade ASK Automotive to BUY rating on attractive valuation and increase our TP to Rs590 (Rs525 previously). The increase in TP is largely driven by valuation rollover. ASK delivered a strong Q3, materially ahead of our expectations, led by broad...
Kirloskar Ferrous Ind. - Casting and tubes outperform, spreads spoil the show | Company Update
We lower our target price to Rs 620 (previously Rs690) and retain BUY rating for Kirloskar Ferrous Industries Ltd. (KFIL). The decrease in TP is mainly to account for weak commodity spreads and realization across end products . KFIL’s 2QFY26 perfor...
IFGL Refractories Ltd. - Domestic focus continues to payoff; overseas improving gradually | Company Update
We decrease target price to Rs 280 (previously Rs 300) but maintain BUY rating. The change in TP is mainly due to cut of earnings estimates. IFGL delivered another quarter of strong standalone growth as its domestic-focused strategy continues to gain...
Borosil Ltd. - Glassware ignites growth; levers to power margins | Company Update
We reiterate our BUY on Borosil Ltd and revise our target price upwards to Rs. 460 (vs. Rs. 420 earlier), driven by strong demand momentum and emerging structural growth and margin levers. The company continues to deliver robust growth in its glasswa...
Venus Pipes & Tubes Ltd. - Export and welded drives confidence | Company Update
We increase Target Price to Rs 2040 (previously Rs1,950) and retain BUY for Venus Pipes & Tubes (VENUS) due to attractive valuations. Increase in TP is primarily due to valuation roll forward. Revenue in 2QFY26 was strong, supported by a sharp re...
ESAB India - Encouraging quarter; growth in focus | Company Update
We retain Buy on ESAB India with TP revised upwards to Rs 6,850 (vs Rs 6,554 earlier) on valuation rollover. The company delivered a strong quarter, with overall growth hinting at signs of recovery supported by margin gains. ESAB continues to o...
The Anup Engineering - All eyes on cash conversion | Company Update
We maintain our HOLD rating on Anup Engineering but increase TP to Rs 2,475 (vs Rs 2,375 earlier) considering steady operational performance and an unchanged growth outlook coupled with valuation rollover. The impact from higher taxes was anticipated...
Rashi Peripherals Ltd – Turns cashflow positive
We retain "BUY" rating with a Target Price of Rs. 505 (vs Rs 525 earlier). Rashi Peripherals ltd reported decent topline growth, on the back of strong sales from the PES segment (PCs, Desktops). Our dealer checks suggest demand is improving for AI-en...
Wonderla Holidays - Chennai on Track; Expansion Visibility Low | MNCL Research Update
We reiterate our HOLD rating on Wonderla Holidays Ltd while revising our target multiple downwards to 18x (from ~20x) and rolling forward our valuation to Q2FY28E. In a seasonally weak quarter, the company delivered a better-than-expected topline, pr...
R Systems International - Strong growth tempered by higher SG&A & RSU costs | MNCL Research Update
We maintain our "BUY" and retain our target price to Rs 620. R Systems delivered higher than expected topline growth (7.9% vs our estimate of 3.5% in INR terms). EBITDA was in line with our estimates / margins dipped 70bps QoQ on the back of higher R...
SJS Enterprises Ltd - Designed to outperform | MNCL Research Update
We revise our target price on SJS Enterprises upwards to Rs1,930 to account for an increase in revenue/ margin estimates, valuation roll-forward to Sept’27E and target multiple expansion. SJS delivered another quarter of strong industry outperforma...
Channel checks - Opalware and Glassware - Borosil Sets the Benchmark in Opalware Retail
We conducted channel checks across key markets in Western and Northern India to gauge demand trends (qualitative aspects) in the Opalware and Glassware categories. We also analysed balance sheet / profitability trends (quantitative parts) across key ...
Goldiam International - LGD Momentum builds; ORIGEM scaling | Company Update
We reiterate our BUY rating on Goldiam International with a target price of Rs. Rs.470. Despite near-term uncertainty around U.S. tariff implications, the company has delivered an exemplary performance driven by robust topline growth and increasing w...
ASK Automotive Ltd – Meets Expectations; ALPS & Aftermarket to Drive Growth | MNCL Research Company Update
We retain ACCUMULATE on ASK Automotive while lowering our target price to Rs 525. The lowering of TP follows downward revision in our revenue and margin estimates, partially offset by valuation rollover. ASK delivered a strong Q2, broadly in line wit...
Sundram Fasteners Ltd. - Steady Domestic Momentum Offsets Export Weakness; upgrade to Accumulate - Company Update
We increase target price to Rs 1085 (previously Rs1030) and upgrade our rating to Accumulate for Sundram Fasteners Ltd. (SFL) due to steep correction in share price. Increase in TP is mainly due to valuation roll forward. SFL’s performance in 2QFY2...
JNK India Ltd – End of Overhang, Execution to Drive Growth | Q2FY26
Our interaction with JNK India led to the following conclusions: JNK India’s legacy low-margin orders (NRL, IOCL) delayed by site and client issues are expected to conclude largely by Q2FY26, with minor spillover into Q3FY26. From Q3FY26, high-marg...
Ratnamani Metals and Tubes Ltd. - Subsidiaries outperform | Company Update
We increase target price to Rs 2710 (previously 2690) and upgrade to Accumulate rating. Increase in target price is due to valuation roll forward. In 2QFY26, the core pipes business saw modest growth as strong offtake was offset by weak realizations....
