Scoda Tubes - Muted Performance | Q1FY27 Company Update
Scoda’s 1QFY27 performance was a miss to our estimates due to higher than expected impact of shutdown at the piercing plant and labor shortage. This, along with high gas costs, led to high operating expenses which cascaded into a miss-on margin. Operations have resumed normalcy from July’26 and we expect volumes to recover in 2QFY27E. Strong demand from the power sector and data centers, expanding global approvals and capacity expansions in welded pipe reinforce our conviction for re-rating. The phase 1 and phase 2 of new welded capacity is on track, with commercial sales expected to start from Q3FY27E. However, rising competition, high stainless steel RM cost and other input cost inflation has led to downward revision in the margins, in turn leading to 6%/ 7% cut in FY27E/ FY28E estimates. Weak profitability has led to cut in target multiple. We now value Scoda tubes at a 16x Jun’28E PE (17x previously) to arrive at a TP of Rs 184/sh (previously Rs 200). The downward revision in TP is due to cut in earnings and valuation multiple, despite rollover. We retain BUY rating due to sharp correction in share price (rich valuation).
Scoda Tubes ltd. Stock Price Chart
Weak quarter due to temporary shutdown and labour shortage:
Scoda reported revenues of Rs 1.2bn; +28% yoy; lower than our estimates of Rs 1.3bn. The weak performance was mainly due to shutdown of the piercing plant, following gas supply disruptions and shortage of labor.
Elevated operational expenses affect margins:
Scoda reported EBITDA margins at 12.9%; -173bps yoy, translating into EBITDA of Rs 160mn; +13% yoy. Margins were impacted by low fixed cost absorption due to curtailed operations and high gas costs. PAT degrew by 26% yoy to Rs 53mn.
What drives our conviction in the thesis?
The piercing plant has resumed normal operations from July’26 and utilization at seamless plant remains healthy. The fundamental conviction in Scoda is driven by strong underlying market demand. The Power sector is forecasted to be the primary demand driver for the three years, supported by major thermal power capacity additions announced by NTPC and Adani Power along with increasing opportunities in data centers for welded pipes. Scoda is well-positioned to scale up utilization from the newly secured approvals at entities like ADNOC, SABIC, Reliance and BARC. This will be further supported by large BHEL tenders (now includes hot pierced tubes in their manufacturing criteria) and increasing presence in the US and Europe. The welded pipe commercialization is on track, and commercial sales are expected from Q3FY27E. However, rising competition, high stainless steel RM cost and other input cost inflation has led to downward revision in the margins, in turn leading to 6%/ 7% cut in FY27E/ FY28E estimates. Weak profitability has led to cut in target multiple.
Valuation & Key risks:
We now value Scoda tubes at a 16x Jun’28E PE (17x previously) to arrive at a target price of Rs 184/sh (previously Rs 200). The downward revision in TP is due to cut in earnings and valuation multiple, despite rollover. We retain BUY rating due to sharp correction in share price (rich valuation). Key Risks: Weakness in export demand, delay in setting up of new welded plant.
Company website: https://www.scodatubes.com/
| Rating | BUY |
|---|---|
| CMP* | INR 134 |
| Target Price | INR 184 |
| Upside | 37% |
*CMP is as per report published date
Click to download the full Scoda Tubes Ltd Q4FY26 Company Update
Analyst:
- Sahil Sanghvi - Research Analyst, Institutional Equities (NISM-201900004744)
- Uvais Khatri - Research Associate, Institutional Equities (NISM-202300049054)
FAQs on Scoda Tubes Ltd Q1FY27 Company Update
These FAQs highlight key takeaways from MNCL’s institutional equity research on Scoda Tubes, covering performance trends, growth drivers and risk factors relevant for long-term investors.
What is the target price for Scoda Tubes?
The supplied research sets a target price of ₹184 per share, revised from ₹200. The target is a research-based valuation estimate and should not be considered a guaranteed return.
What is the rating on Scoda Tubes?
The supplied research retains a BUY rating on Scoda Tubes, citing the potential recovery in operations, strong underlying demand and capacity expansion opportunities.
How did Scoda Tubes perform in 1QFY27?
Scoda Tubes reported revenue of ₹1.2 billion, up 28% year-on-year. EBITDA was ₹160 million, while EBITDA margin declined 173 basis points year-on-year to 12.9%. PAT fell 26% to ₹53 million.
What affected Scoda Tubes' 1QFY27 performance?
The quarter was affected by a temporary piercing-plant shutdown following gas supply disruptions, labour shortages, low fixed-cost absorption and elevated gas costs.
Has Scoda Tubes' piercing plant resumed operations?
According to the supplied company update, the piercing plant resumed normal operations from July 2026, with volumes expected to recover from 2QFY27E.
What are Scoda Tubes' key growth drivers?
The supplied research identifies power-sector demand, data-center opportunities, global approvals, exports and capacity expansion in welded pipes as important potential growth drivers.
When are Scoda Tubes' new welded-pipe capacities expected to start commercial sales?
Phase 1 and Phase 2 of the new welded capacity are described as being on track, with commercial sales expected to begin from Q3FY27E.
What is the outlook for Scoda Tubes' margins?
Margins remain under pressure from rising competition, high stainless-steel raw-material costs and other input-cost inflation. The supplied research has consequently reduced FY27E and FY28E estimates by 6% and 7%, respectively.
What are the key risks for Scoda Tubes?
The supplied research highlights weakness in export demand and delays in setting up the new welded plant as key risks. Higher input costs and competitive intensity may also affect profitability.
Should investors consider Scoda Tubes shares?
The supplied research retains a BUY rating. This represents the research provider's view and is not personalised investment advice or a guarantee of future performance. Investors should conduct independent due diligence and consult a SEBI-registered investment adviser where appropriate.
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