Goldiam International Ltd - Strong B2B Execution; ORIGEM expansion turns calibrated | Q1FY27 Company Update

Goldiam International delivered a stellar Q1FY27 performance, with revenue materially ahead of our estimates, reinforcing the strength of its core B2BC export franchise and the structural opportunity in lab-grown diamond jewellery. B2BC momentum remains strong, driven by healthy sell-through at US retailers, deeper wallet share, new customer additions, rising LGD penetration and encouraging traction in high-value fashion categories, while newer geographies such as the Middle East and Israel are beginning to contribute. ORIGEM also continues to scale, with another 7 stores signed and targeted before the festive season, taking the network to ~33 stores; thereafter, management intends to prioritise store productivity and profitability, while the longer-term ~100-store ambition remains intact. We raise PAT estimates by 44%/24%, driven by a better margin outlook, higher other income, stronger B2B traction and lower near-term ORIGEM store additions. We roll forward to Q1FY29E and value the stock at 30x EPS of Rs 15.6, arriving at a TP of Rs 470 (Rs 420**).

Goldiam International Ltd. Stock Price Chart

B2BC strength drives robust topline growth:

Goldiam International reported robust revenue growth of 41.9% YoY to Rs 3,260mn (MNCL Est- Rs 2,575mn), led by strong traction in the core B2BC business (97% of revenue), which grew by ~40% YoY. Growth was largely driven by continued momentum in lab-grown diamond jewellery, which contributed ~91% of sales, along with healthy sell-through at US retailers and deeper wallet share with existing customers. ORIGEM (~3% of revenue) reported revenue of Rs 82mn versus Rs 33mn YoY and Rs 55mn in Q4FY26, through 25 operational stores during the quarter.

Robust expansion in OPM:

Gross margin declined by 98bps YoY to 29.8%, however operating profitability improved meaningfully, with OPM expanding by 241bps YoY to 20.3%, aided by a 310bps YoY decline in other expenses. Consequently, EBITDA grew 61% YoY to Rs 663mn (MNCL Est- Rs 522mn). PAT increased 120% YoY to Rs 740mn, supported by strong operating performance and higher other income. Other income rose to Rs 376mn from Rs 91mn YoY, including a one-time Rs 200mn gain from tariff reversal; adjusting for this, PAT stood at Rs 540mn, up 61% YoY.

ORIGEM – Expansion turns calibrated; focus shifts to store economics:

ORIGEM continues to scale, with 26 operational stores currently, while 25 stores contributed Rs 82mn of revenue in Q1FY27, compared with Rs 33mn YoY and Rs 55mn in Q4FY26. The company continues to work on improving store productivity through multiple sales enablers, including the Digital 3D Ring Builder, 9 KT lab-grown diamond jewellery and old-gold exchange scheme. Another 7 stores are already signed and targeted to open before the festive season, which would take the network to ~33 stores. Post these additions, management intends to reassess store-level performance and increasingly focus on improving sales per store and profitability before accelerating the next phase of expansion. Importantly, the longer-term ambition of reaching ~100 stores remain intact.

Outlook:

The healthy Rs 2,250mn order book provides strong near-term revenue visibility, while the Rs 4,567mn cash and investment position provide significant balance-sheet strength and flexibility to fund growth. The dual/hybrid US casting model remains a structural competitive and margin lever, enabling Goldiam to mitigate tariff volatility, ensure supply continuity for customers and protect profitability; FY27E will be the first full year of operating under this model, which should support margins through the year. ORIGEM remains a meaningful long-term growth opportunity; however, management’s decision to calibrate store additions and priorities store-level sales and profitability should reduce near-term earnings drag and improve capital efficiency. We have altered our estimates accordingly. With a cash-generative B2BC franchise, structurally stronger supply-chain positioning and a robust balance sheet, we believe Goldiam’s earnings profile is becoming stronger and more predictable over the medium term.

Valuation, view and Risk:

We expect healthy growth over FY26–29E, led by robust momentum in the B2B export business, while ORIGEM should follow a more calibrated expansion strategy focused on store productivity and profitability. With a strong order book, improving margins and robust cash position, we remain positive on the medium-term outlook. We roll forward to Q1FY29E and value the stock at 30x EPS, arriving at a TP of Rs 470 (Rs 420**). Key risks include weaker US LGD demand, adverse tariff changes and slower ORIGEM ramp-up.

Company website: https://www.goldiam.com/

*CMP is as per report published date

Click to download the full Goldiam International Ltd Company Update

Analyst:

• Rahul Dani - Research Analyst, Institutional Equities (NISM-201500034725)
• Vaidik Bafna- Research Associate, Institutional Equities (NISM-202100035711)

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

Here are quick answers to common investor questions on the Goldiam International investment opportunity, including levels, outlook and risk factors.

How did Goldiam International perform in Q1FY27?

Goldiam International reported revenue growth of 41.9% YoY to ₹3.26 billion. OPM expanded to 20.3%, while EBITDA increased 61% YoY to ₹663 million.

What drove Goldiam International's revenue growth?

Growth was primarily driven by the core B2B export business, healthy US retailer sell-through, deeper wallet share, new customer additions and increasing penetration of lab-grown diamond jewellery.

What is driving Goldiam's B2B business?

The B2B export franchise benefits from demand for lab-grown diamond jewellery, particularly in the US, alongside growing wallet share and expansion into newer markets such as the Middle East and Israel.

What is the outlook for ORIGEM?

ORIGEM is adopting a more calibrated expansion strategy. Seven additional stores are targeted before the festive season, after which management plans to focus more closely on store productivity and profitability.

What are Goldiam International's key growth drivers?

Key potential drivers include B2B export growth, lab-grown diamond jewellery adoption, US customer traction, new geographic markets, the hybrid US casting model and ORIGEM's long-term retail opportunity.

What is the target price for Goldiam International?

The supplied research report assigns a Buy rating and a target price of ₹470 versus the reported CMP of ₹368. This is an analyst estimate and does not guarantee future returns.

What are the key risks for Goldiam International?

Key risks include weaker US demand for lab-grown diamonds, adverse tariff changes and slower-than-expected ORIGEM store ramp-up or productivity improvement.

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